Sunday, July 19, 2009

2010 Free Agency Frenzy A Mere Mirage?

It seems that the 2010 Free Agency summer that's been talked about nearly more than the presumably prophetic Mayan Calendar seems to be as much a myth as December 21, 2012 itself.

Something that may come and go with as much a yawn as the Y2K prophecies - wait and wait and ... nothing.

Why?

Thank the flailing economy which, believe it or not, is felt in the pockets and bottom lines of NBA owners and teams alike. The concession workers, obviously looked at as the expendables - but certainly the foundation of many teams' operations, are already feeling the effects, having had their hours cut or been laid off outright as the first casualties.

But consider the news trickling out of NBA Commissioner David Stern's offices about the impending salary cap reduction.

Teams are already exceeding the cap to try and win an NBA Championship, scrambling to nab free agents THIS SUMMER versus next in a Steinbrenner-esque frenzy, to 'buy' themselves a title before Stern tightens the collective belt.

What will happen next summer is more gloom and doom than euphoria ... for numerous teams, and players alike.

A strike is more likely than the aforementioned free agency bonanza, which many expected to have the buzz and feel of a fire sale on Rolls Royces; the San Jose Flea Market will have more activity than July 1, 2010.

Sure, there will be the Dwyane Wades, the LeBron Jameses, the Chris Boshes, the Carmelo Anthonys, and the Amar'e Stoudemires ... but, really, that's about it. The 2009 NBA Draft may have had more drama ...

Teams will have to outright liquidate certain players to get the iconic names listed above ... assuming their respective teams don't (intelligently) lock them up before July 1, 2010. And be assured, the Cavs, Heat, Raptors, and Nuggets are surely looking to do just that.

So could Stoudemire be the biggest free agent name available at 12:01 a.m. on July 1, 2010?

Likely not, but the Suns would be just as wise, as any other team with a franchise player about to be on the block, to retain their core player(s).

Because the people that still have a few extra benjamins in their pockets to come to games, buy concessions (despite the longer lines), and put on the team's colors from their respectively over-priced Team Shops are the ones who will decide whether owners are still able to operate.

Ask the Vancouver/Memphis/potentially Seattle Grizzlies what it's like to operate in the red - it simply cannot be done ... for very long. Check with the Maloof Brothers, who have a seeming endless stream of money thanks to their patrons in Las Vegas (read not Sacramento, where they can't even seem to get enough funding or support for a new arena).

Red is red ... not everyone is a Mark Cuban, a Joe or Gavin Maloof, or a George Steinbrenner. The Robert Sarvers, Michael Heisleys, and Robert Johnsons of the world are realizing that and either trying to sell their teams and/or cutting salaries to get below the luxury tax, never mind the impending, shrinking salary cap.

And if teams alienate their fan base(s) in the process of chasing a 1 in 30 shot at a championship or by being so frugal that they field a 38-44 team every year, the will suffer in the long term - not just a couple or three seasons.

Irreparable damage.

As will the players, should they decide to rebuff the new cap and Collective Bargaining Agreement.

In this economy, people are slowly drifting back to being loyal to their wallet, to a sense of comfort in their slimmed-down way of life, and hopefully to what's more important than any player's jersey or status level of being seen at an NBA game ... their family.

No matter how much we idolize, or even write about NBA players, teams, and/or owners ... not one of them is putting food on our tables or paying our house notes.

Which brings about loyalty ...

2009 will tell if players and teams are loyal to one another.

What happens between now and July 1, 2010 will tell if fans remain loyal to teams and players.

2010 is nothing more than a hyped mirage ... that may never materialize as advertised.

Unless you're a Los Angeles Laker looking to repeat.

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